US tells Gulf allies to brace for post-midterm strikes on Iran · Houthis claim hit on Saudi Arabia's largest refinery · Russian drones hit Kharkiv

Risk stays high on Wednesday, Oct 28. Diplomacy is still active, but signs of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms are getting clearer.

Middle East: The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. has told several Gulf states to prepare for a possible short, intense campaign against Iran after the midterms, with bombers and fighters readying, extra air defenses moving to Israel and troops pulled back from exposed bases. President Trump has not made a final decision and said Wednesday that "anything is possible." Qatari mediators have presented Iran with a new proposal to end the war, an official told The National, and Iran's President Pezeshkian met Putin in Moscow. Iran says a tanker caught fire after hitting mines east of the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia/Yemen: The Houthis claim a missile hit Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, its largest, causing a fire. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed it; Bloomberg reported a fire near the terminal was contained. Debris from two missiles shot down over Riyadh damaged a building, a construction site and a vehicle, with no injuries reported. Another missile aimed at Taif was intercepted early Wednesday.

Ukraine/Russia: Russia launched one ballistic missile and 88 drones overnight; 71 drones were downed. A drone strike set a large fire in Kharkiv and injured five, including a 4-year-old. A local ceasefire around Oleshky for civilian evacuation runs through Nov. 1 and is holding so far.

Energy: Brent rose about 1.3% to roughly $115.50 a barrel Wednesday morning, with WTI near $101.

For USL readers: no new action needed. Keep fuel topped off, expect price swings around the election, and check State Department advisories before any Middle East travel.