US tells Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense strike campaign on Iran after the midterms · Houthis claim missile hit on Saudi Arabia's largest refinery · Russia hits Kharkiv as Oleshky ceasefir

Risk stays high on Wednesday, Oct 28. Diplomacy is still active, but signs of a renewed U.S. strike campaign on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms are getting clearer.

Middle East: The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. has told several Gulf states to prepare for a possible short, intense military campaign against Iran after the midterms. It says bombers and fighters are getting ready, extra air defenses (including a Patriot system) are moving to Israel, and troops have been pulled back from exposed bases. President Trump has not made a final decision and said Wednesday that "anything is possible." Qatari mediators have presented Iran with a new proposal to end the war, an official told The National, and Iran's President Pezeshkian met Putin in Moscow. Iran says an oil tanker caught fire after hitting mines east of the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia/Yemen: The Houthis claim a ballistic missile hit Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom's largest, and caused a fire. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed it; Bloomberg reported a fire near the terminal was contained. Debris from two missiles shot down over Riyadh damaged a building, a construction site and a vehicle, with no injuries reported. Another missile aimed at Taif was intercepted early Wednesday after brief alerts in Jeddah and Yanbu.

Ukraine/Russia: Russia launched one ballistic missile and 88 drones overnight; 71 drones were downed. A drone strike set a large fire in Kharkiv and injured five people, including a 4-year-old. A local ceasefire around Oleshky, meant for civilian evacuation and aid through Nov. 1, is holding so far.

Energy: Brent rose about 1.3% to roughly $115.50 a barrel Wednesday morning, with WTI near $101. Strategists say the market is pricing in a likely re-escalation.

For USL readers: no new action needed. Keep fuel topped off, expect price swings around the Nov. 3 election, and check State Department advisories before any Middle East travel.