Hormuz talks stall · Russia vows heavier Kyiv strikes · Oil eases on G7 release

Risk stays high into Monday, Oct 5. Iran is holding Hormuz shut on its terms as U.S. forces build up, Russia says it will intensify strikes on Kyiv, and oil is easing slightly as the G7 stock release and recovering Gulf exports add supply.

Middle East: Iranian officials repeated Sunday that Hormuz stays closed until seven conditions from the June Islamabad memorandum are met, saying the ball is in Washington’s court. Indirect talks via Qatar are stuck on sequencing. Trump says an Iran decision is coming, “the easy way or the hard way,” while the Theodore Roosevelt carrier group and Makin Island amphibious group head to the region. Two more tankers were struck near Oman and in the strait over the weekend.

Ukraine: Russia’s defense ministry vowed heavier strikes on Kyiv and other cities after Zelenskyy pledged more hits on Russian refineries. Drones struck Kyiv’s Northern Bridge on Oct 4, the fourth straight day of bridge attacks, injuring two and cutting hot water in one district; Kyiv is preparing pontoon crossings. Zelenskyy says the U.S. proposed new three-way peace talks by end of October.

Europe / US energy: Brent slipped to about $101.6 in Asian trading Monday as the G7’s 100 million-barrel diesel and crude release begins and Middle East exports recover. UK diesel topped £2 a litre last week. Analysts expect only short-term relief, and the U.S. energy secretary warned of no guarantees against new Gulf infrastructure attacks.

For USL readers: keep fuel and winter plans current and avoid panic buying. A U.S. decision on Iran could move prices fast in either direction.