Iran holds Hormuz shut · Kyiv bridge hit again · G7 diesel release underway

Three theaters stay elevated into Oct 4. Iran says Hormuz stays closed until its conditions are met while Washington keeps military options open. Russia struck Kyiv’s Northern Bridge again as Germany’s chancellor arrived. G7’s diesel-and-crude stock release is underway after the U.S. stepped back from an export ban.

Middle East: Iran’s parliament speaker said Hormuz will not reopen until seven conditions tied to the Islamabad framework are met; FM Araghchi said Tehran is ready for renewed U.S. action or diplomacy and repeated a seven-day reopen offer if the blockade lifts. Trump said a decision is approaching with “all options” on the table; officials met at Camp David Friday, and more U.S. naval and Marine forces are heading to the region. Tanker attacks near Hormuz continue even as escorts recover traffic—crude workarounds are not a settled open strait.

Ukraine: Russia hit Kyiv’s Northern Bridge again on Oct 4 (second strike in two days), cratering the roadway, cutting a heating main, and disrupting transit after Southern Bridge closures earlier in the week. Overnight ~135 attack drones launched; most were downed or suppressed, with strikes also in Kyiv Oblast, Dnipro, and Sumy. Zelenskyy said Ukraine will increase attacks on Russian oil refineries over what Kyiv calls a new Russian winter doctrine aimed at forcing civilians from cities. Merz began an unannounced Kyiv visit amid air alerts.

Europe / US energy: G7’s Oct 2 plan to release ~100 million barrels of diesel and crude over four months—with a substantial diesel front-load within 20 days—is the near-term market response. Members pledged no energy-export restrictions among themselves after Trump walked back a U.S. diesel export ban. Prices stay elevated amid Hormuz product shortfalls and Ukraine infrastructure hits.

For USL readers: keep fuel and winter plans current, watch diesel and shipping costs, avoid panic buys. Hormuz diplomacy is active but unresolved; Ukraine bridge/energy hits raise winter risk