Hormuz still constrained · Diesel export ban talk · Kyiv hit again · Russia refineries struck

Three theaters stay hot into Sept 25. A midweek Hormuz crude pulse did not restore normal traffic; diesel stress and Ukraine strikes continue.

Middle East: Independent tracking still shows Hormuz far below peacetime. Kpler/Reuters put Thursday commodity transits at nine (from 14 Wednesday) versus a ~18-ship 10-day average and ~125/day before the war; AIS-off vessels are undercounted. Week-to-date crude out of Hormuz (Sept 20–) was about 33.7 million barrels on 19 tankers—roughly on pace with the prior week, not a reopen. A US official claimed Wednesday’s ~60-vessel day carried the highest crude volume since early July; treat corridor claims as unverified until independent traffic recovers. Saudi loadings surged after East-West pipeline damage pushed more barrels through Gulf terminals and congested ship-to-ship transfers near Oman.

Ukraine: Overnight into Sept 25 Russia launched a large drone wave (Air Force tally near 295). A strike on a Kyiv apartment building killed a 14-year-old and injured others; Odesa and Zaporizhzhia also reported casualties or hospital damage. Ukraine drone strikes hit Russian refineries in Perm and Rostov and a defense plant in Ulyanovsk, with fires and at least one refinery pause reported. No ceasefire.

Europe / US energy: Global diesel remains the nearest household channel. EIA put the US on-highway diesel average at a record ~$6.53/gal for the week ending Sept 21. EU retail diesel has been printing 2026 highs; Brussels warned against a reported US idea of a short diesel export ban, which would tighten Europe further since US cargoes have filled much of the gap left by Middle East and Russian product losses. French station shortfalls eased from earlier in the week but remain localized, not a national empty-tank crisis.

For USL readers: keep plans current, watch diesel and shipping costs, avoid panic buys. Official reopen talk still outruns tanker traffic.