Iran says LNG carrier hit a mine in Hormuz and claims strike on US radar in Bahrain · Houthis target Saudi oil sites · Europe to join next Ukraine talks

Risk stays high on Friday, Nov. 13. Diplomacy is moving on Ukraine, but the Iran war and attacks on Gulf oil continue.

Iran and Hormuz: Iran's Revolutionary Guards say an LNG carrier struck a mine east of the strait on Friday while using an "unauthorized" route, after Iran said four oil tankers were hit Wednesday and Thursday. None of this is independently verified, and the ISW think tank says it sees no sign Iran has re-mined the strait. At least 10 ships were hit in the first 10 days of November. The Guards also claim they destroyed a US early-warning radar in Bahrain; the US and Bahrain have not confirmed it. President Trump says the US no longer needs a deal with Iran and will keep the blockade.

Threats at home: Treasury Secretary Bessent has moved to a military base over reported Iranian threats.

Saudi Arabia and Yemen: The Houthis claim strikes on an East-West pipeline pumping station, Yanbu and Aramco in Riyadh. Saudi defenses report intercepting missiles and drones; missile debris fell on a village in Mecca province. Fighting is heavy in Yemen near Bab el-Mandeb.

Ukraine/Russia: After meeting Putin in Moscow, US envoys Witkoff and Kushner say European countries will join the next round of talks and a large prisoner swap is in the works. Putin says Russia's territorial demands are unchanged.

Markets and US: Brent is near $95-96, still down for the week. A nor'easter brought tornadoes and flooding from Delaware to New York.

For USL readers: no new action needed. Keep fuel and basics topped off, and never drive through floodwater.