US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as talks stall, Hormuz still shut · Russia hits Ukraine's grid and a hospital · Midterm elections today

Risk stays high on Tuesday, Nov. 3, US midterm Election Day. Diplomacy is active but no deal is close, and a limited US strike overnight showed how quickly things can turn.

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: US forces carried out what officials called limited "defensive" strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday night, saying they targeted surface-to-air missiles used against US assets. Iran's Revolutionary Guards say they shot down a US MQ-9 drone over the eastern strait. Qatari mediators flew to Tehran on Monday night to work on a draft deal that has been under negotiation for about eight days. A senior Iranian official told Reuters the two sides are "far" from an agreement and that Tehran's conditions must be met before Hormuz reopens, and Parliament Speaker Qalibaf said "the ball is in the US court." President Trump said a deal "could happen" and Vice President Vance cited "some progress." The International Maritime Organization says it cannot confirm the shipping lanes are free of mines and still advises against transiting the strait.

Ukraine/Russia: Russia launched about 289 drones, 17 ballistic missiles and 59 cruise missiles overnight, aimed mainly at power plants and substations in at least nine regions. A Kharkiv hospital was hit and 73 people were injured. A strike on an aid distribution site in Zaporizhzhia region on Monday has killed 29, with 48 still missing. More than 180,000 people in Zhytomyr region lost power, and Odesa has scheduled outages. US, Russian and Ukrainian officials are due to meet in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10-11.

Energy: Oil fell more than 7% on Monday on deal hopes, then rebounded Tuesday after the Qeshm strikes. Brent is near $106 a barrel and WTI near $98. Brent ended October at a six-month high.

United States: Federal agencies have warned of AI-assisted phishing and fake text messages aimed at election offices and voters. Treat unexpected election texts, calls and emails with suspicion and confirm voting details with your county election