Second Hormuz tanker fire in 24 hours · Ukraine resumes refinery strikes · Saudi intercepts missile over Medina

Risk stays high into Friday, Oct 16. Iran reported a second tanker ablaze in the eastern Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours, Ukraine hit a Rosneft refinery after quitting Trump's energy ceasefire, and Saudi Arabia intercepted a cruise missile over the Medina region.

Middle East: Iran's navy says the unnamed tanker switched off tracking and entered its declared restricted zone; no flag, crew status or cause was given. UKMTO rates the threat to shipping severe after eight projectile strikes on Oct. 11 and 13, and Kpler counted 131 Hormuz crossings in the week to Oct. 14, down from 176. ABC News reports Trump has been given escalation options including the MOAB bomb; no decision has been made and talks via Qatar continue.

Saudi Arabia/Yemen: The coalition said it intercepted a cruise missile over the Medina region; the Houthis denied launching it and say they will spare Mecca and Medina. Riyadh's main airport has been attacked 20 times this month, and France has begun deploying forces to help defend Saudi energy sites.

Ukraine: Ukraine struck Rosneft's Ryazan refinery Thursday, and Putin vowed a response. Overnight Russia launched 149 drones, mostly jet-powered, cutting power to Lutsk and injuring at least seven. The UK says Starlink access, restricted Wednesday, has been restored.

Energy/U.S.: Brent eased to about $105.50 early Friday after settling at $105.92; AAA puts U.S. regular gas at $4.33, more than a dollar above a year ago. The FBI is investigating suspicious powder mailings to election offices in several states ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms, and Guam is under a typhoon watch for Tropical Storm Champi.

For USL readers: fuel stays expensive and fragile, so keep a few days of fuel and cash on hand. In Guam or the Marianas, finish storm prep before Saturday evening.